War’s impact may be less than expected

As the war in Iraq intensifies toward a likely climax next week, there are signs that the expected negative impact on Belize and the rest of the world may be less severe than previously anticipated. Sources in the tourism industry indicate that while there have been some short term cancellations due to fear of flying, the vast majority of bookings remain intact and airline load factors are holding up reasonably well as the tourist season reaches its peak. And with eight straight days of gains on the U.S. stock market, previously battered investors may be ready to cash out a few grand for a well-deserved vacation, hopefully, in Belize.

Even oil prices, which had been skyrocketing due to pre-war uncertainty, have dropped to a three-month low on world markets and could fall even more if U.S. and British forces succeed in securing the bulk of Iraqi oil fields. For the present, however, Belizean motorists will continue to suffer as the lag between petroleum prices and refined gasoline deliveries can be as long as several months. We should expect a major shock early next week, as the Esso tanker scheduled to arrive today has apparently been delayed until Monday. A government spokesman has told News 5 that, as we concluded yesterday, government will not be able to absorb the higher acquisition costs as it has done for the last three shipments. Exactly how high prices at the pump will go has not yet been decided, but according to industry sources, a bump of twenty-five cents or more per gallon would not be out of the question.