Independent candidates: how big a factor?

With an as yet undeclared general election less than two months away, a factor is emerging that may have a major influence on the outcome. In fact, 2003 may well go down in political history as the year of the independent candidate. Nomination day has not even been announced, but if all those who have signalled their intention to run independently actually do so, the result will be the most crowded ballot ever. Leading the unaffiliated pack, as previously reported, are a number of prominent defectors from the opposition United Democratic Party, namely brothers Hubert and Wilfred Elrington. Unconfirmed reports indicate that they will be joined by former U.D.P. representative Salvador Fernandez, who intends to run in his old stomping ground of Cayo North. And this is only the tip of the electoral iceberg. There are indications that Sydney Fuller, the dethroned U.D.P. aspirant in Albert, will make a run in that division; educator, Dr. Paul Jones has announced for Collet, while the movement called We the People intends to field candidates in a majority of the nation’s twenty-nine constituencies. Early movement leaders Francis Gegg and Hippolito Bautista will run in Fort George and Corozal southeast respectively, while a list provided today to News 5 includes Roy Rodriguez in Corozal Bay, Felipe Tzul in Corozal North, Erwin Sanchez in Orange Walk South, Eldo Gideon in Orange Walk East, Ivan Roberts in Cayo Central, Eduardo Melendez in Stann Creek West and Leonardo Acal in Toledo West. More names are expected from We the People next week, as are those from the more traditional thirty party, NABR. And while not one of the independent candidates is given much of a chance of actually getting elected, the votes they receive can determine which of the mainstream candidates will win. This is not only true in those races where disgruntled former U.D.P.’s will help elect P.U.P. candidates; even where less popular independents win only a handful of votes, Belizean history tells us that in a close election every ballot counts.