Voting on proposals may wait ’til 2004
With the clarity of twenty-twenty hindsight, it is painfully obvious that the excitement generated by the presentation and subsequent debate of the proposals to end the Guatemalan claim could never be sustained. Today, almost two months after their unveiling, not only has the excitement subsided, but those proposals are in fact without a discernable pulse–killed by the hard realities of Guatemalan electoral politics. If any resurrection is possible, it will have to wait until a new Guatemalan regime is installed in 2004–and then only if the new president is willing to return to the negotiating table with the next government of Belize. That stark reality was confirmed this afternoon by Attorney General Godfrey Smith, who briefed the press on his recent talks at the O.A.S. in Washington. Those talks, it appears, are focussing more on immediate problems at the border than on any future voting on the proposals. According to Smith, a document outlining new confidence building measures will be signed. Included is a new framework for advancing the peace process.
Firstly, the parties acknowledge that “the facilitation process was successfully concluded with the presentation by the facilitators of their proposals.”
Secondly, “both sides will recognize and acknowledge that a new transition process is needed to guide the parties towards having the proposals approved by referenda.”
And thirdly, “the process will continue under the auspices of the Organization of American States with the coordination of the facilitators and along with the participation of what is called a group of friends.”
Those “friends”, Smith explained, are key members from the international community, expected to include heavy weights like the United States and Britain. But with the illegal incursion of Guatemalan settlers into Belizean territory yet to be fully addressed by the O.A.S.–still a sore point for the Belizean public–the most drastic addition to the confidence building document was the organization’s recommendation to place observers in certain border areas.
Godfrey Smith, Attorney General
“As we understand it, the purpose of this physical presence in the adjacency zone will be two fold: firstly, to foster corporation activities both sides of the adjacency line, as well as to verify any on the ground transgressions that may arise. Transgressions of course of any confidence building measures that we agree to. The third element of this new document, this new confidence building measure, deals with certain things in the adjacency zone. Firstly, it is expected that both sides will agree to have the O.A.S. as soon as we sign off on the new confidence building measures, implement a project whereby whatever settlers are at Nuevo Juda and the Melchor-Benque border will be relocated over to the Guatemalan side.”
But how soon the illegal settlers will be forced to move is anyone’s guess because the document does not offer a timetable. But today’s big news was that the Attorney General himself admitted that his personal opinion is that the referenda are not likely to take place before national elections in Belize…and Guatemala.
Godfrey Smith
“I think it would be perhaps unrealistic to think that it could be held before then. It’s possible, and here you’re asking me my personal view, as opposed to my formal view as a member of the N.T. (negotiating team). My personal views, I think it’s unrealistic to think that it could be held before then.”
The latest polls out of Guatemala City indicate that the Portillo presidency and his party are unpopular with voters…a major factor behind the non-promotion of the proposals package in that country. The political wisdom suggests that to push for a yes vote on proposals that are even more unpopular than he is, would be suicidal for President Portillo and members of his party. Guatemala’s general elections are slated to be held late next year with inauguration ceremonies not coming until February, 2004.
The impact of national political sentiments is also being felt at home as even before Smith’s press conference, the United Democratic Party was trying to distance itself as much as possible from the entire process. In a press release today, the U.D.P. characterized the latest O.A.S. recommendation as “lame” in that it did not call for the immediate expulsion of the illegal Guatemalan settlers near Benque Viejo. The release concludes by saying that the U.D.P. will reconsider its participation in the process “in light of the total ineffectiveness of the O.A.S. in enforcing the present agreement.” On December third a ministerial level meeting will be held at the O.A.S. to sign off on the framework described by Smith.
