February police statistics show crime is down

The Ministry of National Security has released the latest crime statistics and according to their figures, major offences in February have dropped over seven percent from a year earlier. The decrease was not across the board, however, for while the number of rapes dropped from thirteen to seven, murders from three to one and thefts from one hundred and sixty-two to one hundred and twenty-five, robberies were up… from thirty-three in February of 2000 to forty-two this year. Likewise burglaries rose by eight percent from one hundred and thirty-one to one hundred and forty-two. While we cannot fault the police number crunchers for their enthusiasm, their eagerness to report good news may have resulted in some careless math. After reporting a twelve percent drop in December crimes, a twenty-four percent drop in January and February’s seven point three percent decline, the ministry concludes that crime over the last three months has decreased by a whopping forty-three percent. This figure was no doubt arrived at by adding the three monthly declines. But as any student currently studying for the PSE can attest, the correct answer is arrived at, not by adding the three numbers, but by averaging them. By this measure, crime over the last three months has dropped by roughly fourteen point four percent–still a pretty impressive statistic.