Belize Monitors a West-Ward Moving Tropical Wave
The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) and the National Meteorological Services of Belize are monitoring a westward-moving tropical wave that is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea just west of the Windward Islands. Projections are for a tropical depression to form during the next two days. Today we spoke with Deputy Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon about this system and he shares why Belize is monitoring it closely.
On the Phone: Ronald Gordon, Deputy Chief Meteorologist
“As of midday, the latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center still gives that system a seventy percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within forty-eight hours. They have noted also that the system hasn’t changed significantly in organization since yesterday and the system still doesn’t have a close circulation. So, we are looking at a tropical wave and not a tropical depression at the moment. The forecast projection is for it to become a tropical depression in forty-eight hours – there is seventy percent chance of that happening which means there are few factors contributing to possible development while a few factors are hindering it. Looking at the environment, most of the environmental factors are in favor of this system becoming a tropical depression. We have a relatively moist environment within the system. There are also low levels of vertical wind shear; wind shear typically disrupts or tears our thunderstorms apart in this case that value is low and so that would be a factor in favor of development and then it is over warm sea surface temperatures. However, on the other side, the system is moving relatively fast to the west at about fifteen to twenty miles an hour and that is one factor which is not in its favor for development. That fast westward motion is preventing the system from developing that close low level circulation that you need for it to be classified as a tropical depression.”
Ronald Gordon
Andrea Polanco
“Why should Belize be monitoring this particular system?”
On the Phone: Ronald Gordon
“For the very fact that that the Hurricane Center gives it a high chance of developing within forty-eight hours. So, there is a seventy percent chance and you don’t want to be taking a risk with that. So, there is a chance that the system could become a depression before it reaches our shores and that is a reason why NEMO is putting people on alert – not to panic but to be prepared in case we need to come out with any sort of watch or warning. We are not there yet but in case that happens, we need to be on the alert and to be prepared for that eventuality.”
