Above Average Hurricane Season Projected

Ronald Gordon

Today, the National Emergency Management Organization hosted the press at the NEMO headquarters to talk about the hurricane season and preparedness in light of the Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season opening in less than a week. Weather officials are predicting an above average season with eighteen named storms, of which the first on the list Ana has already formed off the coast of Bermuda. Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon breaks down what the season will look like and some of the factors influencing the prediction of high tropical cyclone activity.

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist

“All the indications are, the factors are there, for it to be an above normal season and when I refer to those factors I refer to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin especially the sub-tropical Atlantic and the other factor which is very important is whether you have an El Nino or La Nina situation. Without going into details, El Nino situation typically suppresses Tropical Storm activity or Tropical Cyclone activity in our region where as La Nina does the reverse, it enhances it. The indications are, we are either going to be in a weak La Nina or neutral conditions so that will not be a suppressing factor and coupled with the fact that we have warmer than normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures. We expect this season to be above normal. Normal now is fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, using the1991-2020 climatology as the baseline. This year most centers are forecasting about eighteen named storms and about eight hurricanes and in terms of major hurricanes the forecast is for there to be about normal major hurricanes this season.”

Our news team returned a few minutes ago from Belmopan and so on Thursday we’ll have much more about this year’s hurricane season and preparedness, as well as NEMO’s readiness.