Hurricane season looming on the horizon

The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season is just around the corner beginning June first through November thirtieth. And while that is never soothing news on this side of the globe, meteorological experts project that it won’t be as merciless as Hurricane Iris in 2001 when twenty one persons perished or last year’s devastating Tropical Storm Arthur and Depression Number Sixteen that caused the deaths of thirteen persons. Because of the El Nino phenomenon, the prediction is that there will be fewer storms developing and of lesser intensity. But Acting Chief Meteorologist, Dennis Gonguez says this is no excuse for Belizeans to let down their guards.

Dennis Gonguez, Ag. Chief Met. Officer
“What I don’t try to do is to focus too much on the number because even in an average season or a below-average season it just takes one system to wreck your whole life for the next ten years. Even if I say it’s an average season, it says nothing of where the systems will hit.”

So what is behind a more intense or, in this case, a less active year? Gonguez says it’s all about the sea temperatures.

Dennis Gonguez, Ag. Chief Met. Officer
“Tropical cyclones need sea surface temperatures of about eighty, eighty-one, eighty-two degrees Fahrenheit and that’s one of the main ingredients. Once you find that you don’t have that particular–-because that is—the ocean is the surface of the energy for the tropical cyclone. So once we don’t have a large expanse of oceans above eighty-two degrees then we know that the season won’t be as active as usual. In terms of the El Nino and La Nina, they are the warming and the cooling of the Pacific Ocean. That warming and cooling effect has impact on the general circulation of the atmosphere and as a consequence, impact on the development of hurricanes over this side.”

Marion Ali
“It’s two weeks actually, before the opening of the hurricane season. What should we be contemplating?”

Dennis Gonguez
“Getting prepared, we should focus on preparedness. Get your evacuation plans in place, what you will take with you in the event of an emergency and start rehearsing your plans, you know, exactly what will I do if there’s a threat tomorrow. Where will I go, what will I take with me and just keep rehearsing that plan.”

The prediction is that there will be ten storms for 2009, with six developing into hurricanes, two of them major ones. And if you are wondering about the names they include: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fabian,
Grace, Henri, Isabel and Juan.