CDEMA: Even During El Nino, Warm Temperatures Can Cause Storm Development

Elizabeth Riley

As we reported on Thursday, weather forecasters are predicting an almost normal hurricane year for 2023 in terms of storm activity, despite the fact that they are also expecting an El Nino phenomenon to occur. While this often suppresses hurricane development, the extremely warm temperatures that are accompanying the El Nino this year are also conducive to storm development, as Executive Director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, Elizabeth Riley warned today during a regional press conference.

Elizabeth Riley, Executive Director, CDEMA

“The upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected active than recent years, and these are competing factors, some that suppress storm development and some that fuel it, which is driving this year’s overall forecast for a near normal season, after three hurricane seasons with La Nina present. Now scientists are predicting a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer. And you may know that El Nino can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. El Nino’s potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical at basin. Those conditions include the potential for an above normal West African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds, some of the stronger and longer lived Atlantic storms, and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean sea, which creates more energy to fuel storm development.”