The Advances and Challenges of COP28 and What it Means for SIDS
By Hipolito Novelo
28th Conference of the Parties, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
The initiation of COP28 climate talks marked the inception of a novel fund aimed at addressing the escalating losses and damages faced by vulnerable countries due to the intensifying impacts of climate change. COP28 unfolded as a landmark event in the global response to climate change. It culminated in an extended period of negotiations that captured the attention of climate activists, experts, NGOs, governments, and world leaders. The additional twenty-four hours of deliberations were not just a procedural formality but rather a crucial phase that marked what many consider the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.
As the final gavel struck, the resounding agreement forged at COP28 set the stage for transformative actions, including an accelerated phase-out of coal, a substantial increase in renewable energy deployment, a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030, and a commitment to achieving net-zero emissions in the energy sector by mid-century. This momentous occasion was encapsulated in what is now widely referred to as the UAE Consensus.
President of COP28, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber,
President of COP28, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, said, “We have language on fossil fuels in our final agreement, for the first time ever. All of these are world-first and all of these are crucial actions that will help shape a better, cleaner world with greater and more equitable prosperity.”
The Global Stocktake (GST) agreement emerged as a key component of the COP28 discussions. It signals a collective commitment to hasten efforts to reduce unabated coal power. However, the road to consensus on this issue was not without its challenges, with strong resistance from major coal-dependent nations like India and China, who were wary of singling out coal for specific attention.
The Chair of the Alliance of Small Island Developing States, AOSIS, Cedric Schuster, made their position clear. He told reporters, “It presents a menu of options that states that ‘could take’. ‘Could’ is unacceptable. How can you not understand—it is our very survival that is at stake? This is why in every room, our negotiators have been pushing tirelessly for decisions that align with staying under 1.5 degrees of warming. That is why if parties continue to oppose the phase-out of fossil fuels and fossil fuel subsidies, they must stop and question their own commitment to this process.”The eventual inclusion of measures targeting coal power in the GST agreement marked a significant shift in the global approach to addressing one of the most carbon-intensive sources of energy.
Reactions to the COP28 deal were mixed, reflecting the diversity of perspectives within the international community. Some hailed it as the beginning of the end of fossil fuels, a long-awaited turning point in the fight against climate change. Others, however, labelled it a significant letdown, pointing to potential loopholes and shortcomings in the agreement.
Belize, from the outset, took a clear stance, championing the cause of vulnerable countries and emphasising the need for a comprehensive and equitable response to the climate crisis. The country’s lead negotiator, Dr. Carlos Fuller, says that vulnerable countries like Belize need to defend their interests. He said, “Belize is recognised, and we are recognised as one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse impacts of climate change. So we have to come here to defend that interest, and we need the support of the international community to address the issues of climate change.”
Dr Carlos Fuller, Belize Lead Negotiator
Dr. Fuller explained that “we (Belize) contribute a lot to reducing the impacts of climate change on other countries through the use of our forests and the use of our natural resources in the oceans. So, there is a lot to which we can contribute. But there is a lot we are also vulnerable to, and we have to show the world why we are vulnerable and what help we require to address climate change.”
Amidst the celebrations surrounding the finalisation of the GST text, concerns emerged regarding the participation of small island nations. These nations, often on the frontlines of the impacts of climate change, felt marginalised in the negotiations, underscoring their endeavours to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. In a pivotal moment at COP28, AOSIS took a strong stance against the GST text, considering it a threat to their very existence. “As big emitters continue to serve an antiquated industry that is responsible for over 90% of current CO2 emissions—and rising—AOSIS will be here. We will never stop fighting for a future where our people cannot just survive but thrive. Because of the actions of big emitters, we have no choice. And we remind you yet again: our small island developing states are on the frontlines of this climate crisis, but if you continue prioritising profit over people, you are putting your own future on the line. We call on our allies to support our call and stand with us to keep 1.5 alive”, said Schuster.
Tensions escalated at COP28, highlighting the urgent need for global cooperation in addressing climate change. As discussions unfolded, the evolving GST text underscored the complexities and challenges inherent in crafting an agreement that addresses the diverse concerns and priorities of nations worldwide.
Belize’s Minister of Sustainable Development and Climate Change, Orlando Habet, echoed these sentiments. He said, “We have not made much progress in terms of reaching that goal for their 1.5 degrees. Short of that, indications are that we are already at 1. And if things remain the same, and it seems as if some of those countries are, as you see with the negotiations, they don’t even want to mention the issue of fossil fuel reduction. They’re sticking to this word behind it, saying fossil fuel reduction, but they’re adding in the abatement side to it. We understand that for an individual country that’s producing petroleum, it may be a problem, but they have been asking for a transitional period for a long time.”
Orlando Habet, Belize's Minister of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management
According to Minister Habet, key consideration should be given to technology. He said, “There has to be more technology to make sure that whatever they produce has fewer emissions, but they also have to understand that this is increasing the temperature, and we will not be able to reach the goal that has been set. Secondly, and very important, is that some countries, especially some of the developed countries, are saying that if we increase mitigation, let’s say 30%. And reduce the emissions by 30 percent, so that there should be less need for adaptation from this very wrong, very wrong way of thinking because it will take years and years before the effect of climate change ameliorates to where it doesn’t have an effect.”
As COP28 drew to a close, attention turned towards the future, specifically COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Observers anticipated that finance would become a key issue at the upcoming conference, with a growing gap between the needs of developing countries and the assistance provided. Bridging this financial gap became imperative for the success of future climate change initiatives, emphasising the crucial role of financial support in achieving meaningful global climate goals.
Minister Habet says that Belize and SIDS will continue to defend their interests at future COPs. He said that one of the focuses for Belize is adaptation. “In terms of adaptation for us, which is the most important part, especially looking at the finance for adaptation, because we are doing our share but we need to have the financing to get there. So in the discussion on adaptation, especially with regards to finance, we couple it with general climate finance, in which we are asking that that one hundred billion dollars be put out there and that they make certain that every year for what has been promised for the next ten years, that hundred billion dollars gets there.”
SIDS will also depend on climate financing. Mitigation negotiator for AOSIS, Colin Mattis, said, “What we have been doing through our policies, especially the Nationally Determined Contributions, we’ve been saying all our targets and actions are dependent on support from developed countries. So, we are asking here through AOSIS also for financial support, technology, and capacity building. But finance is key because we really can’t implement our actions without it.”
AOSIS remains steadfast in its unwillingness to compromise. During the initial four days of COP28, an impressive sum of over fifty-seven billion dollars was committed to support various priorities within the global climate agenda. Scientific consensus underscores that to preserve the 1.5-degree target, the world must achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and reduce emissions by 43% by 2030. However, the prevailing indicators suggest a less optimistic outlook.
The outcomes of COP28, with their successes and challenges, set the stage for continued international efforts to address climate change. The hope is that future conferences, including COP29, will build upon the progress made, learn from the identified challenges, and foster the spirit of collaboration and commitment necessary to tackle the complex and interconnected issues associated with climate change. COP28, with its extended negotiations and diverse perspectives, served as a pivotal moment in the global climate action agenda, offering both a glimpse into the challenges ahead and a beacon of hope for a sustainable and resilient future.
This reporting was delivered in partnership with the Commonwealth Foundation.
Read more at commonwealthfoundation.com
