Dean: Category Four and closing fast
It is still over fourteen hundred miles from our shores … but with nowhere to go but west, the powerful hurricane named Dean will keep most Belizeans on edge this weekend. Today we made the rounds of those agencies at the centre of disaster preparedness efforts and found a mood of hoping for the best … but preparing for the worst. We begin our coverage at the Weather Bureau.
Jacqueline Godwin, Reporting
Although one computer projection takes Hurricane Dean across Belize, most of the forecast models are predicting that Hurricane Dean will take a more northerly path toward the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The concern is that predicting the path of a hurricane is not an exact science and atmospheric conditions can change rapidly.
Frank Tench, Weather Forecaster
“One factor that we’re watching has been the high pressure ridge over the Atlantic. That ridge has strengthened over the last few days and it continues to keep Dean on a westward track moving across the Caribbean; and that high pressure ridge is still fairly strong and is likely to allow Dean to continue on that westerly track through the weekend.”
Another feature the weather bureau has been monitoring is a ridge of high pressure that has been developing almost in sync with the movement of Hurricane Dean that is allowing the system to further develop. This feature is expected to remain in place for the duration of the storm’s passage through the Caribbean, where the warm sea temperature will help Dean to survive and strengthen.
Frank Tench
“We would have to be concerned throughout this weekend and for several reasons. As you said that cone of probability does include us in the possible path of the hurricane when it makes landfall either late Monday or early Tuesday. Also for planning purposes, depending on the extent of your planning, you may want to execute some of those plans as early as this weekend so that come Monday, if we are faced with the worse case scenario, you don’t have to be rushing to get your plans completed.”
The Belize Weather Bureau says even if the storm does not directly hit the country, some parts will be affected.
Frank Tench
“I do expect some tropical storm force effects, especially in the northern districts. Corozal, Orange Walk, Ambergris Caye will definitely receive some effect from this storm; in terms of tropical storm force winds at least, and some rains, showers and thunderstorms will start to increase in those districts as early as Sunday and more likely Monday, and through Tuesday.”
“They should be the most concerned in terms of effects, but feeder band clouds from the storm either on landfall or after landfall, could affect any part of the country during the storm’s passage. It looks to me like the southern
Districts are probably going to experience the least effects form this storm. Most, or all areas of the country will be under that fairly gusty westerly north-westerly wind as early as Sunday and Monday, continuing through to Monday and Tuesday when the storm nears the coastline of the Yucatan Peninsula or Belize.”
Dean has already been defying a number of predictions by strengthening to a category three storm for earlier than originally forecast. Jacqueline Godwin for News Five.
Late this evening forecasters showed Dean packing one hundred and twenty-one mile per hour winds, seven hundred miles east of Kingston Jamaica, moving west at twenty miles per hour.
