Tropical Storm Dean bears watching
First, let me preface this next story with an explanation that we report it not to cause any undue concern, but out of a healthy respect for the power of nature. Yes, there is a storm out there and while soon-to-be Hurricane Dean poses no immediate threat to Belize, it certainly bears watching.
Jacqueline Godwin, Reporting
All eyes are on the Caribbean as what is predicted to be the season’s first major hurricane, presently Tropical Storm Dean, continues on a westerly track toward the Eastern Caribbean. That should bring the system into our neighbourhood by early next week. According to forecaster Frank Tench it is still too early to say if the storm will threaten the country but present models are showing that Dean is likely to take a track similar to the route taken by Tropical Storm Chantal which formed in August of 2001 and affected Northern Belize with strong winds and torrential rains. That is why the Belize Weather Bureau is advising everyone to remain vigilant and to have some kind of contingency plan in place.
Frank Tench, Weather Forecaster
“Stock up on food on Saturday just in the event that we get the worst case scenario or if you haven’t been doing any planning at all use the next few days to try and get some of that planning done. Whether it means having plans about where you’re gonna take your family or what you’re going to do with your business. Just in the event that when you start next week, you have something in place to get cracking because, as I said, this storm is definitely gonna be in our area by next week Monday and Tuesday. People will be going back to work that time and that might be too late to do anything.”
The current forecast suggests that a high pressure ridge predicted to further strengthen over the weekend will keep the storm in the Western and Central Caribbean.”
Frank Tench
“So that ridge is one factor that’s gonna prevent the storm form moving in any other direction other than west over the weekend, this week.”
“Another factor is that sea surface temperatures are quite warm at this time, so that’s gonna provide the heat energy for Dean to survive in the Caribbean and the upper level pattern, it looks like we are gonna have a favourable upper level pattern to provide the ventilation once the storm gets into the Caribbean, the Central and the Western Caribbean.”
September and October are the two months when most tropical storms and hurricanes have affected Belize but history dictates that such occurrences as Dean are not unusual this time of the year.
This hurricane season is being carefully monitored by weather experts in the region because tropical activity is forecast to increase due to special conditions called the Neutral Phase of the Enso Cycle and the La Niña Phase. Both were present when Hurricane Anna and Hattie hit Belize in 1961 and tropical storm Chantal did its damage in 2001.
Frank Tench
“That’s not to say that we’re gonna have a Hattie but the neutral phase tends to enhance tropical storm activity as well as the La Nina phase and with a tendency to go towards La Nina it would tend to support tropical storms surviving during this year’s hurricane season.”
The Belize Weather Bureau advises Belizeans to stay tuned to weather reports on the progress of Dean.
