Friday in Belmopan is all about math

Both sides in the battle over the Universal Health Services bailout continue to jockey for position at Friday’s pivotal meeting of the House of Representatives. Outside the National Assembly the U.D.P. will be leading the mass demonstrations, but the partisan aspect is expected to be soft peddled as a wide cross-section of civic groups and individual citizens will be going to Belmopan, united by the single purpose of blocking any government payments toward the U.H.S. debt. The National Trade Union Congress of Belize was meeting from four this evening to reach a decision on whether to officially commit to the demonstration, and while a vote to go would bolster the crowd size and morale, it is believed that even without unanimous official support, a number of individual unions and their members will be in attendance. At news time the teachers’ union had issued a release explaining that while they were dead set against the loan repayment, they will go ahead with previously planned Teacher’s Day activities in Corozal. Meanwhile, the P.U.P. has called for its own supporters to stage a counter rally in the capital and we will assume that security forces will keep the two groups well separated. Whatever the numbers in Belmopan, it appears that at this point the Musa administration is impervious to the overwhelming public opinion against the thirty-three million dollar bailout and continues to stand by the debt, vowing only to renegotiate its quantum, interest rate, and duration. At this point the most important math for the Prime Minister is the number of P.U.P. representatives who will support him. With a twenty-one to eight majority Musa can afford no more than seven defections, as a majority vote against the loan approval would constitute a vote of no confidence and result in immediate elections. At this point the P.M. looks safe as only Mark, Cordel, and Johnny continue to talk tough. Joe appears to be waffling and Servulo may or may not follow Johnny’s lead. There is idle talk about Florencio and Valdemar joining the rebels, but even if they do, that’s at best still only seven members, one shy of an Opposition majority. Prime Minister Musa is said to be calling in all his I.O.U.’s and writing plenty of new ones in an attempt to keep his Cabinet in line. At this point the most important question may be what fate the losing rebels may suffer. Custom dictates that a Cabinet minister who votes against a government resolution should resign or be fired. But custom is not always observed these days, as our ministers don’t like to willingly give up their immense power and our Prime Minister, if he did fire the heart of his Cabinet, would in effect be confirming his government’s status as a lame duck administration.