Climate change has many effects on region

Belizeans are keeping their fingers crossed for another few months until what has so far been a very mild hurricane season passes into history. According to scientists I spoke to this morning, crunch time is just around the corner.

Jacqueline Godwin, Reporting
The national metrological service reports that conditions in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean have become more conducive to the formation of storms in the Western Caribbean this is largely due to the development of a well established Bermuda high that has re-established in the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Mike Gentle, Weather Forecaster
?What this means is that should any tropical systems develop the projected track would be south on the southern edge of the Bermuda high. So the reestablishment of the high has an effect on the track that would keep it more on a lower latitude and on a more westerly motion.?

Today the Belize Weather Bureau says based on the latest predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, N.O.A.A., of the twelve to fifteen storms predicted for this hurricane season, eight have already formed. Of that number, seven to nine are forecast to develop into hurricanes of which three have already formed and only one of those systems was a major storm. Now with thirteen more names left on the list, weather forecaster Mike Gentle explains why Belizeans, at this time of the hurricane season, should be more on the alert.

Mike Gentle
?Our climatology has shown that the worst part of the hurricane season is usually the last few months. Late September/October, so we need to keep vigilant and look for any formation. Another thing is that in this later part of the season, the regions for tropical cyclone origins shift to more the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.?

Tropical systems bring rain, lots of rain, those conditions have far reaching effects. Dr. Kenrick Leslie, former Chief Meteorologist and now the Executive Director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre based in Belmopan.

Dr. Kenrick Leslie, Executive Director, C.C.C.C.
?We know that in Belize that the annual rainfall in the north is about sixty inches and the annual rainfall in the south is about two hundred inches. Now we can get the same amount of rainfall annually, but when we get it, we can get it at a different time for instance we might say two hundred inches in Toledo and that is spread out over two hundred days for the year. But now with the climate change that is taking place, you can get the same two hundred but in fifty days, which means the intensity is much higher which means the run off from the rivers will be much higher, and therefore the soil erosion would be higher and it takes that out into the Caribbean coastal areas, which impacts the coral reef.?

Because of what has been happening climatologically in the Caribbean and Central America, scientists and climatologists are improving their capabilities to study and assess the impact of climate change five to fifteen years from now. Such an exercise will allow them to provide the necessary information to make the region less vulnerable to the risks of climate change. The participants are learning how to use the Precis climate model developed by the United Kingdom?s Hadell Centre considered to be one of the leaders in this field of study.

Dr. Kenrick Leslie
?So even a small island like Barbados can be modelled with that. And in the case of Belize because of our physical size twenty-five kilometres will give us real detail information that can be used in the study of how these changes will impact our water resources and our agriculture.?

In Belize, local Meteorologists Ann Gordon and Dennis Gonguez are two of the regional participants being trained and expected to use the model at the National Met Service.

Dr. Kenrick Leslie
?We will give them the equipment; help them to learn to how to start these programmes. So we are not going to do it ourselves we will find the resources for them and the same thing we are doing for Trinidad, Barbados for Guyana and for Jamaica. So we help them to build the capacity to do these studies.?

The climate change workshop started on Monday and will conclude on Friday.

Other countries participating in the workshop are the Bahamas, Mexico, Cuba, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Dominica and St. Lucia.