COVID Numbers Trending Down

Finally there is some really good COVID-19 news. The numbers are trending down. The latest statistics coming out of the Epidemiology Unit at the Ministry of Health and Wellness indicate  the daily positivity rate should be back to pre-Omicron numbers as soon as mid- February. A recent graph which shows the “Projected Prevalence of COVID-19 nationally” was released by the Ministry. We spoke to Russell Manzanero, Epidemiologist at the Ministry of Health and Wellness, via zoom about what is panning out to be a short lived Omicron wave.

Russell Manzanero

Russell Manzanero, Epidemiologist, Ministry of Health and Wellness

“This particular model was actually developed by one of our other staff members here at the Epidemiology Unit. Basically what you are seeing there is one of the many models that can be done in regards to projection of COVID cases. Modeling can be done in regard for hospitalizations, the number of persons that end up in I.C.U., the trends of how we look at COVID overtime. But of course, modeling in itself varies. So, you can’t say this is what is expected, it is only to give us an idea of what is happening currently. The way how models are done you are plugging in different parameters you are seeing at the moment. Based on those you can actually say, these are the figures being shown. I think at this time what you did see there was that we have, according to the model; we were peaking in the early parts of January. We maintained that thigh number of cases for some time until we actually had mentioned that it was becoming stagnant or plateau, and then it would start to have a downward trend. You all have been following you numbers at this time so you have been seeing that positivity rates from late December to January were pretty much almost at thirty percent. Now that we are seeing these numbers we are seeing that there is a downward trend, for example over the weekend we are seeing that it was less than twenty percent. So, the number of total test that we are seeing positive of the total test and these are the numbers you are starting to see now. In regard to the model we are seeing there, it is pretty much saying that by the end of February, mid February, you should start seeing a downward trend of cases in regard to where we are at.”