New projections for hurricane season
Weather experts have predicted an active and busy hurricane season and true to their word, on the day the season opened southern Belize was devastated by Tropical Storm Arthur. Residents of these communities are still on the road to recovery and now the news is not good. Weather experts are now giving a new and more active projection for the remainder of this hurricane season. The new outlook follows a recent pattern of stubborn atmospheric conditions that have been occurring. The Caribbean can expect increased activity, warns Chief Met Officer Ramon Frutos, and so he encourages Belizeans to remain vigilant and prepared.
Ramon Frutos, Chief Meteorologist
“What the predictions are indicating as of yesterday—the updated predictions for this year’s season—is that there’s a sixty-seven percent chance that we’ll have up to fourteen to eighteen named storms by the end of the season, seven to ten hurricanes out of these and three to six major hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin. That comprises the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Golf of Mexico. Now what are these atmospheric conditions that remain favourable? First of all, were looking at the sea surface temperatures which have remained relatively warm and are expected to remain relatively warm for the next few months of the hurricane season. We also expect little sheering in the upper levels. And also, we expect conditions in the Pacific Ocean to remain neutral or close to La Nina event. All of these point then that the hurricane season this year will continue to be active and another factor that we’re looking at is that in July we had a very active period. That then, is indicating that the rest of the hurricane season will continue to be active. According to the predictions then, with the five which have already occurred, then we expect nine to thirteen named storms remaining, five to eight hurricanes and out of those we could get two to five major hurricanes developing. So then, we are also looking at the short range models, ten to fifteen day models, and those are also indicating that if we move towards the last fifteen days of August, the last two weeks of August and into September, especially the first two weeks of September, we can expect a surge in tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Basin and the Golf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Listen to your latest bulletins. Don’t go listening to false rumours or rumours on a whole and also, begin to prepare. Have a little plan and begin to prepare. If you have to evacuate, know where you’re going. Don’t wait until the last minute to decide oh I’m going to Cayo or I’m going to Orange Walk, or I’ll head up to Belmopan. Try to make that plan from now and know what you will do in the event of an emergency. Remember now that before the storm makes land fall along the coast of Belize, the rains will be upon already and areas of Belize; the Belize District, the Stann Creek District and even up north in Corozal District between Corozal and Orange Walk on the highway are vulnerable to floods and flash floods.”
There are no weather conditions threatening the region at this time but there is plenty reason to be alert and ready until the season closes at the end of November.
